The launch edition of an ongoing series — a synthesis across growth, inflation, labor, fiscal position, banking, and external balances, read together rather than as isolated indicators
This is the launch edition of an ongoing Country Risk series -- a different format from the platform's first three publications, each of which was built around a single thesis. A country risk profile is a synthesis: growth, inflation, the labor market, fiscal position, banking conditions, and external balances, read together rather than in isolation, because risk assessment depends on how these dimensions interact, not on any one of them alone. Read together, the US picture as of mid-2026 is one of genuine strength alongside two specific, worth-naming tensions. Growth remains positive and above-trend by the OECD's own leading indicator. The labor market has improved from a November 2025 peak in unemployment. Governance and rule-of-law indicators remain strong by international standards. Against this, two tensions stand out: an unresolved divergence between the Federal Reserve's two inflation gauges, and a federal fiscal position -- 122.6% debt-to-GDP, a 5.77% deficit -- that this piece treats as structural context rather than an immediate risk trigger.
This article is available to Research Members.
Subscribe to continue reading, including full analysis and data.
View plansResearch Paper 2 of The New Global Macroeconomic Regime: The Transformation of Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Global Trade
A durable manufacturing-export surplus and the lowest unemployment rate in this programme, alongside genuine governance and fiscal-data gaps
A genuinely notable current account deficit for a major oil exporter, flagged as worth monitoring rather than explained away